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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced its latest forecast for the southwest monsoon, indicating that rainfall is likely to be “above normal” this year, reaching 106% of the long period average (LPA) with a margin of error of +/-4%.According to the IMD, there’s a 32% chance of above-normal rainfall (105 to 110% of LPA) and a 29% chance of excess rainfall (over 110% of LPA).The long period average (LPA) for the monsoon season from 1971 to 2020 stands at 87 cm.
The forecast suggests normal rainfall for northwest India (92 to 108% of LPA), below-normal rainfall for east and northeast India (less than 94% of LPA), and above-normal rainfall for central India and peninsular India (both at 106% of LPA).
Crucially, the core monsoon zone, covering most rainfed agricultural areas, is expected to receive above-normal rainfall (106% of LPA). M Mohapatra, director general of IMD, emphasized the confidence in the forecast, stating a 61% probability of above normal or excess rainfall. This bodes well for agricultural prospects this year. Last year, the monsoon was below normal, registering at 94.4% of LPA.IMD had predicted a normal monsoon at 96% of LPA with a margin of error of +/-4%.
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